2014年12月17日 星期三

Revised Annotations (4)—Taiwan Identity and Solution for Taiwan’s Future

Why should we investigate Taiwan identity?

Group identity is important in social science study. Humans are social animals. In the process of evolution, people will attach to a certain group mentally. From the aspect of psychology, when a person says he/she belongs to a group, it reflects what he/she will dislike according to his/her knowledge and the world he/she sees through his/her mind, which enable us to speculate whether he/she will support or object to the political and social issues, and what information his/her brain will emphasize or neglect when receiving it.

Group identity is often related to a nation’s decision to be independent or unified. For example, in the process of European integration, those countries with stronger nation identification are more inclined to be against European integration. Another example is that the younger generation in Cyprus, a country on the Mediterranean which is separated to the north and the south, also stands against the unification for identifying with the different territory. To compare Taiwan with Cyprus, the geography difference cannot be ignored. There is no natural barrier between north and south Cyprus, when there is Taiwan Strait between China and Taiwan, which might have deferred the invasion of China.

The Rise of Taiwan Identity

Due to the replacement of the generation, there are fewer elders who had once lived in China and had fought the war. The younger generation in Taiwan who lives and grows on this land tends to identify themselves as Taiwanese.

For those individuals who change their identification in their older age, this transformation is often stimulated by the outer factors. In 1997, the 1995–1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis which is caused by the missiles fired by China made Taiwan identification increased by 10%(See the chart below). Likewise, before and after president elections, the rate of Taiwan identification will also increase.

Economical benefits will also influence Taiwan identity. The Taiwanese who feel that China’s economic is beneficial to Taiwan tend to have less Taiwan identification.

The Influence of Taiwan Identification and its Augment

The recognition of the difference between China and Taiwan, and the experience being oppressed by China will create Taiwan identification. The attitude, which is to recognize themselves as Taiwanese, will make people object to economical cross-Strait relations even though they know there could be monetary benefits, increase the rate to support the candidates who are closer to DPP and affect the recognition of parties which are more “blue.” Taiwan identification has become a more influential factor than provincialism in elections.

Does the Rise of Taiwan Identification Equal More Supporters of Taiwan Independence?

According to the chart which is released by Election Study Center National Chengchi University, while Taiwan identification has remarkably increased, the preference in the Unification-Independence stances of Taiwanese has not changed significantly. This may imply that Taiwan identification does not have direct relation to Taiwan independence, and there are still other factors involved, such as the recognition of the Constitution of Republic of China and the fear for China military might. “The 2011 Taiwan National Security Survey found that if one assumes China would not attack if it declared its independence, 80.2 percent of Taiwanese would in fact opt for independence.”(Mearsheimer)

It has little doubt nowadays that most Taiwanese prefer independence if China’s military threat is excluded. The problem is how and in what form. According to Mearsheimer, “Taiwan is not going to gain formal independence in the foreseeable future, mainly because China would not tolerate that outcome.” Taiwan can move toward de facto independence, which means Taiwan is independent practically but is not acknowledged formally by the law or other countries. Mearsheimer provides three options for Taiwan’s future. First is to pursue nuclear deterrent. If Taiwan has its own nuclear arsenal, it would be more difficult for China to conquer Taiwan. However, both China and the U.S. will strongly oppose Taiwan gaining a nuclear deterrent. Second option is conventional deterrence, which means to make China pay a huge price to unify Taiwan. Mearsheimer suggests that “This strategy would be even more effective if Taiwan could promise China that the resistance would continue even after its forces were defeated on the battlefield.” The third option is to pursue what China calls “one country, two systems,” as China has become more powerful and unification seems inevitable.




References:

John J. Mearsheimer, Taiwan in the Shadow of a Rising China, Taiwanese Journal of Political Science No. 58

2 則留言:

  1. A: Emma think the concern of people don’t want to be unified is the problem of identity. So I change my annotation to talk about Taiwan identity. About group identity, I mention in my first annotation. In this annotation, I talk about Taiwan identity, this is a phrase that used to describe people who has identified with Taiwan and view themselves as Taiwanese. In first paragraph, I find resource of why we should investigate Taiwan’s identity, because, as his point of view, this group identity is from perspective of psychology, when people, it will effect his or her virtue determine and will influence his or she make judgement of different value and will affect how the world look like in his mind. This group identity will influence people decision.
    One is the example of Scotland independence and other example is from Europe which countries have strong identity, they emphasize their specialty. In the process of Europe, those nation has stronger identity. Another example is Cyprus, which is separated from north and south, the teenage don’t want to be unified because of their identification. Taiwan’s identity has changed, the author points that even Taiwan’s identity has increase, it didn’t mean that people want Taiwan to be independent increase, it still have many factors involved.
    T: How about the Scotland test?
    A: Yes, I omitted it…
    T: Ok, but you still have Cyprus case here?
    A: Yes!
    T: I think it is great to show Cyprus as a refection to talk about Taiwan’s case, I wonder there is a geography different from Taiwan and Cyprus, the different is that there is a marine strait between Taiwan and China, but there’s no separation between north and south Cyprus. If there’s no some distance between this two counties, will there be more conflict or more controversies in this area? Like Cyprus?
    A: Do you mean that we have Taiwan strait?
    T: There no strait between Cyprus, right? The transportation and communication is easier than Taiwan and China?
    A: Do you mean
    A: I didn’t investigate this case very much, im not should if people in Cyprus share the same culture. If they share same culture like Taiwan and China, the conflict maybe less than the situation between Taiwan and China.
    T: So the geography may not be problem?
    A: Geography is also an important factor.
    T: OK. And you say in third paragraph that the younger generation in Taiwan will rise, so do you think this thing will bring Taiwan news type of thinking in the following years?

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  2. A: Like the sun flower movement and election last month, it seems that they make their influence and more and more younger people live in Taiwan.
    T: Do you think their opinion more objective than the older people? They will concern more different factors, they will listen to more muti-scource than the older people?
    A; Do their opinion are more objective? In my opinion, this is not issue about objective. Maybe you think it’s will be objective because it benefits Taiwan? According to author’s opinion, the identification will influence people stands, like although people think there will be more benefit to have economy with China , If people have Taiwan identity, they will refuse this relationship with China. So I think if the younger generation identify Taiwan more, they will want to support more.
    T: What about the inner factor?
    A: Inner factor is also about identification. There are many local movement in this year that last for period of time, I think Taiwan identification is a contribution to local movements.
    T: You say that economy with China will reduce Taiwan identification, I will like to know where it cites from?
    A: The writer mention it. I found the article in this website called 蔡氏講政治學. The founder are group of political researcher, they study politic in studying or PHD. They write down their opinions of politics.
    T: Yes, in this case, we can see a significant increase that support Taiwan’s independence. What kind of problem occur to this situation? Why their action are so conservation but their mental identification be so Taiwanese?
    A: According to the author, there are other factor that influence their mind, such as people are afraid China will attack us, and another factor, they still stand for the ROC, because ROC include china. But this chat, they only show the result. The specific reason why there is no direct relation still not very obvious and is still under investigation. The two outers faction are still their speculation.
    T: But what is the increasing of their identification unless they really do something for Taiwan?
    A: That’s the good question. If Taiwanese really want to be independent, Taiwan’s identification seems not enough to be the cause, to be motivation. There still many factors to be considered. There is a politic professor who came to Taiwan, talking about the situation of Taiwan and China. He said that America want to know if Taiwan want to be independent. If we become independent, we can not thoroughly rely on America’s help.
    T: America will not give us decision of whether be independent or not.
    A: Your question to me is that if this Taiwan identity can’t advocate Taiwan independence.
    T: Or you should take step by step? Having an identification for Taiwan is a good thing.
    A: My original issue is should Taiwan be an independent country. My stand is yes. And I try to know the inner and outer factors in Taiwan and what will affect their opinion toward this issue. I think if this didn’t show the direction relationship, than I will still investigate other factors.
    T: Factors for supporting Taiwan to be independent?
    A: Yes.

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